The Forex Nitty Gritty » Forex Markets

Currency Rate Instability

TFNG Admin — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 01:50:54 +0000

Although companies doing business internationally prefer stable currencies, speculators commonly look for profits in currency rate instability. The situation in the European Community is a case in point. A collection of European nations are to varying degrees in danger of defaulting on their national debts. The worst of the lot is Greece. There has been speculation in the press that the nation might be forced to withdraw from the European Union and quit using the Euro as its currency. For the last two years EU officials, the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and a succession of Greek officials have been dealing with the crisis. The end result is still uncertain. The continuing result of this uncertainty is currency rate instability. It starts with the Euro. However, the collective EU economy is on par with that of the USA as the first or second largest in the world. A financial crisis, renewed recession, and/or political breakup in Europe will affect markets and currencies throughout the world. Efforts to avoid financial disaster such as the French austerity plan threaten the economic growth needed to pay back the accumulated European debt load.

The most recent news about Greek debt negotiations is that European finance ministers are demanding that private investors take a fifty percent write off on the value of their investments and that they extend their loans out to two or three decades. In return the EU solvent members of the EU will provide the funds to rescue the Greeks from their financial mess. The precise interest rates involved in a new set of loans is a bone of contention as higher rates would require more money than the EU at large is willing to offer up to fix this mess. The Euro has fluctuated up and down in response to these ongoing negotiations, ministerial pronouncements, and press reports. Those who have been able to accurately read the various pronouncements have been able to profit from the resulting currency rate instability. It is not just about how to short the Euro but how to anticipate a likely recovery when the EU gets its economic house in order.

What happens if there is a Greece debt default? The concern is that many European banks as well as other investors have purchased Euro denominated bonds from Greece. If the nation defaults on its debts the resulting losses could cause banks not to loan and large investors to hold on to their money. If this happens in Europe, Spain, Italy, and even France could have problems selling their bonds at auction at reasonable rates. The doomsday scenario in this case is that government default on loans rolls across the bottom of Europe ending up in France, the continent’s second largest economy. The European Union breaks up with only the northern members remaining. The resulting currency rate instability drives the Euro down. The resulting recession in Europe hurts Asian exporters affects the Yen, Australian dollar, Yuan, and Rupee. Currency traders who do not see the whole picture sustain large losses. Those who anticipate the fallout from a poorly handled Greek debt crisis profit from the resulting widespread currency rate instability.

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European Central Bank Rate

TFNG Admin — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 23:32:06 +0000

The European Central Bank rate of interest on loans to client banks may fall in the coming year. The new European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, is expected resemble US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in his actions, more so than his predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet. Draghi, like Bernanke, studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. With Greek debt default still a strong possibility the EU has given the bank broader powers to prop up banks as well as governments. There are two problems that leaders of the EU and the Central Bank face. One is that governments across the continent need to spend less. We see this in the recently announced French austerity plan. The other is that decreased spending could well drive the continent back into a recession. It appears as though Draghi may follow Bernanke’s lead in driving interest rates lower in an attempt to avoid recession and increased unemployment by cutting the European Central Bank rate among other measures.

There is, indeed, speculation that Draghi could find himself following the Fed example of buying government bonds as well. The new bank president has already surprised many by issuing 1% interest loans amounting to over $600 Billion USD to prop up ailing European banks. The end result of all this could well be a yearlong decline in the Euro. Currency traders and others can heartened by the prospect of the EU getting a handle on the debt crisis. Over the long term, a solution to the continental sovereign debt dilemma can only mean good things for the EU. However, it may well be a bumpy and somewhat downward ride for the Euro until the EU gets its house in order. Volatile foreign currency rates were the hallmark of last year and may well continue into 2012. A reduced European Central Bank rate may well lead to a long term solution but at the price of declining Euro in the year or years to come.

If the Euro does decline it will probably not fall all at once or at a steady rate. Trading options on the falling Euro may be the best trading bet. When the trader buys calls or puts on one currency with the other he limits his investment risk to the price of the options contract. Traders will be able to decide upon trades based upon solid fundamental and technical analysis. By purchasing options the trader will be able to avoid substantial losses if his analysis is faulty. On the other hand he will be able to leverage his investment by purchasing options as the cost of an options contract is substantially less than the cost of the underlying currency. As always we are not predicting that the Euro will fall but offering a thought process for traders to follow in developing and executing currency trades. If the impression that Mr. Draghi gives of following in the steps of Mr. Bernanke is correct that will give traders useful insight into the likely direction of the Euro in 2012.

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Global Economic Recovery

TFNG Admin — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 16:36:08 +0000

Currency and stock traders have been hoping to see tangible signs of a global economic recovery. When the largest heavy equipment manufacturer in the world, Caterpillar, reported better than expected earnings it also predicted growth in the three percent range through the end of 2012. Stock markets reacted positively and currency traders are looking to see which currencies will profit the most. A lot of the construction spending coming this next year has to do with the ongoing reconstruction efforts in Japan following the worst earthquake and tsunami in the history of the island nation. Construction in Japan as well as in the USA are expected to help lead global economic recovery this next year. Does that mean that the YEN and USD will rise as well? Investing in the US dollar was a good bet recently as the dollar rose against most currencies and falling interest rates on T bills made assets held in dollars and T bills doubly valuable.

Traders recognize, however, that the Japan and Switzerland have been selling their currencies recently to avoid high priced Yen and francs. Traders also recognize that for a global economic recovery to really gain steam the European Union needs to follow through with promises and its more prosperous members need to ante up somewhere in the neighborhood of €2 Trillion in order to resolve the continuing debt dilemma. If this happens most traders expect to see a rally of the Euro which could lead to a falling dollar. Although many see the dollar as a safe haven currency a rising Euro could compete as a secure currency to park assets in time of economic distress. Likewise, if the Swiss and Japanese stop dumping their currencies they could rise as well. Smart traders are using options to hedge currency risk.

A positive factor pointing to a continued global economic recovery, as opposed to a second dip of the worst recession in three quarters of a century, is the fact that many US companies are flush with cash. Many, in fact, have substantial sums offshore. If legislation meant to encourage a repatriation of these assets goes through it could bring a lot of dollars back to the USD and also drive the dollar higher. This would be a situation similar to the Yen repatriation scenario earlier this year when Japanese investors divested themselves of investments denominated in dollars and other currencies and converted these currencies back into Yen. These investors had been engaged in the so called Yen carry trade. They were able to move assets out of Japan with its low interest rates and convert to currencies where interest rates were higher. When the earthquake and tsunami wreaked havoc on the nation many needed assets back home in Japan to finance reconstruction efforts. The resulting wave of purchases of YEN drove the currency up very rapidly and only a threat of unified intervention by the combined financial ministers of the G7 served to stabilize exchange rates. As a continuing global economic recovery seems more likely there will very likely be substantial cash flows for investment and well as asset repatriation. Currency traders are well advised to follow fundamentals and technical aspects of their currency pair of choice in the coming months.

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Foreign Currency Trading Volume

TFNG Admin — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 16:54:39 +0000

Currency traders concerned about the uncertainty of the markets have stayed home in large numbers during the last month resulting in low foreign currency trading volume. Figures released by US banks that trade foreign currencies show a distinct reduction in revenue due to decreased Forex trading. What does generally reduced foreign currency trading volume mean for the individual Forex trader? Does reduced foreign currency trading volume change how to trade Forex? First of all remember that traders are not staying out of the market because volume is low. They are staying out of the market because they think that the market too volatile, especially in trading the EUR/USD, EUR/YEN, EUR/CHF and other currency pairs that include the Euro. Nevertheless, Forex technical strategies work best in high trading volume and high liquidity. So, to a degree we might be seeing a domino effect. Traders watching the fundamentals leave the market because of confusing reports about resolution of the European debt crisis. Then technical traders leave the market because trading volume is low. This sort of thing could become a vicious circle of cause and effect leading to ever lower foreign currency trading volume.

However, the fundamentals in Europe will eventually change. The situation is driven by the fact that debt instruments in various nations of the PIIGS group (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) are coming due. In Greece, especially, the problem is acute as creditors are demanding severe austerity measures in return for debt forgiveness and debt extension. The value of Greek government notes has fallen drastically. The concern of the Forex markets is that if the Greek government defaults on its debts there will be a ripple effect throughout the EU and even the world. Greece could be forced to withdraw from the EU. The situation will resolve itself for good or for ill. At some point the fundamentals will become less chaotic and less vague and trading of the Euro will pick up again. The downward direction of the Euro will probably stop. Because the majority of trading in Forex markets involves the US dollar an increase in foreign currency trading volume will include the USD. The US dollar could fall versus the Euro in an EU recovery. Traders bullish on the Euro could prosper in such a situation.

There is a sort of fatigue that sets in when markets are constantly chaotic, hard to predict, and unprofitable. Lack of profit and perceived potential for profit is often more important in driving down foreign currency trading volume than the specifics of trading themselves. Forex traders work with a trading strategy. Successful traders back test their results. When they are not making profits and do not understand why, the better choice is to sit on the sidelines until things become more clear. Many traders who stay in the market in such situations use options. For example in trading options on the falling Euro a trader might buy calls on the Euro with dollars. If the debt crisis resolves itself well the Euro will rise and the trader will profit. If the situation worsens the trader has limited his risk to the cost of the options contract.

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The Federal Reserve Buying Gold and Foreign Currency Can Affect the Forex Market

TFNG Admin — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:14:38 +0000

The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the Forex market in a number of ways. The Federal Reserve and the central banks of many nations routinely intervene in the Forex market in order to maintain the strength of a given currency or in order to hold its price down. The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the US dollar or affect any currency the Fed chooses to buy with dollars. The Fed will, for example, choose to intervene in the currency markets in order to reduce the relative value of the dollar compared to the currencies of its trading partners. By selling dollars and buying gold or Yen, Euros, Swiss francs, or any other currency the value of the dollar tends to be reduced across the board. By buying Yen the price of Yen tends to go up in relation to the dollar. The same is true with Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, British Pounds, and the rest. How to trade Forex successfully will include having an understanding of how the Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the currency pair that one is trading.

The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect US exports, imports, and the US balance of payments. That is, in fact, why the Fed will choose to intervene in the Forex markets. The value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies is only important so far as it affects issues such as how effectively US companies can export their products and compete with foreign imports. The Asian exporters, Japan, Taiwan, and China, especially, have acted for years to raise the value of the US dollar and keep their currency values low in comparison. This has made their products cheaper, and thus more attractive to US buyers. It has given them a competitive advantage and contributed greatly to their success as exporters. The problem for the USA and the value of the dollar lies in the economic success of the USA and the relative stability of its currency, economy, politics, and national borders. The US dollar is a safe haven currency. In times of world wide turmoil and instability people buy dollars. This is a tribute to the high standing of the dollar and tends to keep the dollar artificially high. For the trader, as an example, how to invest in Euro is to buy the day before the US Fed decides to buy a few billion Euros with dollars.

The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the artificial elevation of the value of the US dollar. When a big player, like the Fed or a large central bank, dumps a large amount of its currency in the Forex market there are immediately more sellers than buyers of the currency and will be until the price of the currency comes down to where every last offered dollar is purchased. The affect is to reduce the value of the dollar and raise the value of each and every currency which the Fed buys. The same applies to gold. Gold goes up when the US replenishes its gold reserves. How to trade Forex in these situations is to keep up with the Forex news and any announcements by the Fed. It is to anticipate when the Fed is likely to intervene. Then the trader needs to be able to anticipate just how well the sale of dollars will work in reducing the value of the dollar and just how soon it will rebound and trade accordingly.

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Leverage Misuse and Abuse in FOREX

TFNG Admin — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 22:31:30 +0000

Forex is the worldwide currency exchange market, also known as the foreign exchange market, “fx” for short. This is an over-the-counter electronic trading market for the major worldwide currencies. It offers easy entry to the average public trader and fairly low margin requirements.

However, this low margin and high leverage is also the #1 risk and cause of loss among novice Forex traders. Misuse of leverage is the Forex cardinal sin. In the article below I’m going to explain the new leverage rules, and show you exactly how to take advantage of it! To give you even more I put together this Free Forex Toolkit with an entire video section dedicated to using the new leverage rules to consistently profit…GET IT HERE.

What do we mean by low margin and what is leverage? Well basically this means that you can control a huge amount of a currency in the Forex market with a very small cash outlay. The normal stock and index options that we trade at BigTrends.com represent 100 shares of stock — you pay a premium to control/own this option. For example, in the stock option market you may be able to control the right to buy 100 shares of IBM for $500 — this is an example of leverage. However, the leverage in Forex is much greater than this in most cases … but so is the risk.

We only have to look at the recent housing market crash to see an example of where leverage and low margin caused massive losses among individual investors. People across the world were buying houses and properties beyond their means and with very little cash down. Many of these were speculative, greedy bets on a continued sharp rise in housing prices — which knowledgeable, experienced traders such as ourselves knew wouldn’t continue forever. They weren’t bad homeowners; they simply misused leverage.

The huge amount of potential leverage and low margin requirements in fx trading is similar to this. The latest rules allow Forex leverage for 50:1 on major currencies and 20:1 on minor currencies. Some brokers may still be able to offer 100:1 leverage. What this means is that a trader can often control millions of dollars of a currency proposition with a very small cash outlay. When novice traders allow emotions such as greed and fear to rule their trading, they often end up on the losing end of large leveraged bets.

Thanks for reading, and I’ve got a lot more where that came from! While I write my next article get my Free Forex Toolkit that will put your Forex trading on the right track!

Article compliments of Scott Downing, Director of Research at BigTrends.com

How Can I Learn to Invest Safely in the Forex Market?

TFNG Admin — Sat, 11 Sep 2010 15:21:13 +0000

A common question these days from new comers to Forex is “how can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market.” This question often comes from those who lost substantial sums in the recent stock market crash and are looking for a means of recouping their losses. Normally the focus of new investors in Forex is the leverage offered by Forex trading and the excellent profits that Forex trading leverage can provide. However, those once bitten are twice shy and those who lost in derivatives in the market crash are wise to ask “how can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market. Investing safely is possible so long as the investor realizes that there is always market risk and that investing safely is doing the things that reduce risk while improving the chances of success. In the short and long run how to trade Forex successfully is with knowledge, discipline, and hard work. These are the answer to how can I invest safely in the Forex market?

There are no guarantees of success in today’s Forex market which is commonly trading sideways. Unfortunately there are ways to guarantee losses. For example, a trader who is in a currency pair that he does not understand and for which he has done no fundamental analysis is asking for trouble. Technical trading is largely based upon accurately reading and taking advantage of small market moves. However, the market may be moving in one direction and may briefly correct. Having a clear idea of where the fundamentals ought to take the market will help the trader decide whether or not to exit a position or to ride out the possibly brief correction. The trader can always exit a position and then reenter if the market turns around. The trouble is that every trade costs fees and commissions and if the market is turning around the trader will lose unless he re-enters his position very quickly on the turnaround. This gets into how many trades you make and the business of auditing your results.

There are traders who make money on many small trades each day and eat up a substantial portion of their earnings in fees and commissions. If one of these traders remembers to ask the question, how can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market, they will start to audit their trading results and learn to pick fewer trades with larger chances of success. The old adage is that you don’t lose if you don’t trade. So, how can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market? Research the currency pair you want to trade. Audit your trading results and aim for fewer, more profitable trades while avoiding what amounts to compulsive trading. This has to do with the psychology of trading. We usually talk about the twin demons of greed and fear that drive traders to bad trading decisions. The other “psychological” factor is a compulsiveness that can emerge at the trade station. To trade successfully the trader needs to treat trading as a business and execute trades that are planned and part of a Forex trading strategy. When considering Forex tips versus Forex strategy in Forex trading it is strategy that wins out. How can I learn to invest safely in the Forex market? Treat Forex trading as a business with attention to every detail. Forex trading can be very profitable for those to are diligent, knowledgeable, and work hard.

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Foreign Exchange Market – Weigh Up the Risks and Benefits Before the Ride

TFNG Admin — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 20:18:38 +0000

Do you know what foreign exchange trading is? The foreign exchange market is a place where currencies are traded against other currencies.

The largest, most liquid market in the world is the forex market which has trades of over $2 trillion US dollars taking place on a daily basis most of the week. This market is constantly on the move any time of day or night throughout the year. Trades are being placed at any given time of the day. The market is full of all kinds of players such as corporations and financial institutions to your individual investor.

The main thing to keep in mind about the Forex is that it deals with the currency used by all countries around the world. Therefore, foreign exchange markets are moved by supply and demand, which is in constant flux and needs to be continually monitored to optimize trading.

Everyday, there are large volumes of currency conversions carried out by government, commercial and individual traders. That large and small investors can trade in this marketplace is what makes foreign exchange trading so attractive and popular.

The liquidity of the forex market and the 24 hour trading environment due to overlapping world markets are advantages that allow traders to chop and change their trading strategies quickly depending on the world’s geopolitical, economical and environmental conditions. Of course, foreign exchange trading is not without a considerable amount of risk along with the chance to realize awesome profits.

You had better understand though of the ever present danger of having your entire capital investment as well as any profits wiped out from movements of the market against you. Doing your homework in regards to any market tricks or tips is of paramount importance ahead of placing any decent amounts of money in a trade. Don’t ever make a trade if you have any negative gut-feelings.

There are endless numbers of websites and courses on foreign exchange investments which you can utilize on the internet. In Forex trades are generally ended at a spot rate, being settled within a couple of business days.

On the other hand, rollovers are when positions stay open and roll-over to the following day, which means the positions will be settled at the new rate. The asking and offer prices are the quotes for the 2 currencies involved. With the asking price being on the right and the offer price being on the left.

Forex Trading Revisited

TFNG Admin — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 13:49:42 +0000

These days, Forex trading is a lucrative way to make money from any computer around the world, without needing to be part of a bank’s inner circle of directors or a well educated trader with special contacts.

However, Forex trading can be very complicated and risky at the same time. Therefore, it’s no surprise that so many people are turning to Forex trading indicators (sometimes referred to as trading robots) to handle their money, their trades and their risks and rewards in general.

The Myth about Forex Trading Indicators

Sadly, even the most powerfully advanced Forex trading robot is not going to automatically make you a millionaire overnight.

This is because no matter which way you look at it, trading is always attached to some form of risk, no matter how big or small.
Of course, the better the trading robot, the lower your risks. But ultimately, if you want guaranteed return on investment from putting money into something, then you’re better off applying for a high interest bank account (which, as I write this, is actually risky in itself due to the poor economy!).

The Facts about Forex Trading Indicators

Despite these obvious warnings, there is no denying that sheer potential of money to be made by any single individual from anywhere in the world is too much of a temptation to simply ignore.

Knowing the basics before you get started with help you tremendously, even if you do decide to use a software program to automatically trade for you.

Before we discuss the right software for the job, let’s take a quick look at the basic principles of Forex trading…

The Two Types Of Indicators

Forex trading is based on indicators. Indicators tell you when prices are moving up and down so that you can spot opportunities as they arise (allowing you to buy low and sell high). There are two types of indicators in Forex trading…

1. Continuation indicators

These follow trends such as moving averages. These types are the easiest to use for Forex trading to see trends going up and down in the markets.

Moving averages are better suited to markets that experience trends, which there are many.

Moving averages can be very flexible and allow you to make decisions on your trades outside the purely technical factors that other trading indicators are based on.

2. Velocity/Momentum indicators

These types will analyze the velocity or momentum of price movement
Both these types of indicators define and organize the patterns into an understandable set of tools which can be used as quick reference for your trades.

They essentially signal where the strong and weak points are in differing markets and ultimately spot potential trading opportunities for you.

They are best applied to non-trending or sideways markets and basically use an oscillator to display the continuous rate of rise and fall in market prices to show patterns and trading opportunities. They essentially help to reveal triggers where a market has been flat for some time.

By applying both indicators to spot potential trading opportunities, you will see the best results in your Forex trading activities.

Although many are put off by the complications of Forex trading, a simple piece of software can handle such confusion and deal with the different types of indicators to pick out wining trades for you, automatically.

Whilst many Forex trading software programs (also known as trading robots) can be unreliable, there are a small number of Forex robots that exist today that are producing real money making results for everyday people who know nothing about Forex trading at all.

Forex Trading, What Hours Should I Be Ready For Trading?

TFNG Admin — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 12:56:59 +0000

Once you have decided to enter the Forex trading world you will find that FX trading has many advantages over other capital markets. Including among others; very low margins, free trading platforms, high leverage and around-the-clock trading.

The main point in this article is to let you know what hours you should be ready and focused for trading, so you can expect the highest profits in your trades, and not just consider that around-the-clock trading means you should randomly trade through out the day.

In short, it is important to know what the best hours to trade are because if you want to find an appreciable number of profitable trades you need to enter the forex market at the best period of time, i.e., when the activity, the volume of transactions, is the highest.

At any given time; somebody, somewhere in the world is buying and selling currencies. As one market closes, another market opens. Business hours overlap, and the exchange continues as day becomes night and night becomes day, giving you 5.5 entire potential trading days.

Forex Trading begins in New Zealand at Sunday 5pm EST, and then is followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America in this order and through out the day and through out the week until Friday 4pm EST when the American market closes.

Other important facts every Forex trader should know are: the US & UK markets account for more than 50% of the forex market transactions; Forex major markets are: London, New York and Tokyo. Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open. And maybe one of the most important characteristics; Forex trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap.

So, the answer to the question; “What hours should I be trading?” is dictated by this last characteristic, you should trade when the major markets overlap. Now, when do they overlap?.

Considering the different time zones of the world and open and close times for Australian, New Zealand, Japan, America and Europe markets. We can arrive to the conclusion that there are two major time gaps when two of the major markets overlap during trading hours.

These hours are between 2 am and 4 am EST (Asian/European) and between 8 am to 12 pm EST(European/N. American).

So if you want to catch the best trading opportunities of the day and you are in the American continent you must be ready to wake up early or go to sleep late some times. Of course things change around the world. What’s the best region where to trade from if you can’t wake up early?… Maybe the Ukraine.