The Forex Nitty Gritty

Many who follow the real estate market on the mainland would not be surprised to see a Chinese real estate crash. Although some still think of China as an unstoppable juggernaut, the nation has its share of problems. For example the large number of IPO’s of Chinese stocks last year were mostly unsuccessful. The US Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into the limited transparency of and poor data available for many Chinese stocks. A likely recession in Europe could not only create problems such as a run on French banks but would certainly reduce exports from China as well. Both the EU and United States are printing money in order to avoid a depression. Cheaper dollars and Euros will make European and North American products more competitive and Yuan denominated products harder to sell. Then there is the issue of skyscrapers and a possible Chinese real estate crash.

Building booms often precede bad economic times. The “see throughs” in Atlanta and Houston years ago were silent testimony to the hubris of overbuilding during times of loose credit and excessive optimism. (A “see through” is a skyscraper that is largely unoccupied. At sunrise and sunset one can “see through” the many empty floors.) China is said to have over half of the skyscrapers in the world in construction with more on the drawing boards. Even for a large and growing economy that is a lot, especially when financing may be questionable. Property developers in general are pessimistic while construction firms express optimism. One group might be expecting a Chinese real estate crash while the other does not. However, when a construction company finishes the job it gets paid and moves on. It is the developers and investors who suffer when the real estate market crashes. At such times predicting Forex trends can be profitable.

There are three more issues that relate to the danger of a Chinese real estate crash. One is that in an effort to stimulate the economy the Chinese government has built many public projects with hundreds of billions of dollars creating their own artificial boom. The second is the nature of financing in China. Similar to Japan before the bust two decades ago, China has all too many “off the books” loans or at least loans that are not apparent to the general investor. If things go bad they could do so in a hurry with shaky financing. The third aspect is that the Chinese real estate market is already heading down hill. Residential property sales are down substantially in major Chinese cities and sellers are dropping prices in order to get out before things get worse. As the China current account surplus falls so might property values throughout China.

So, what would a Chinese real estate crash mean to the average Forex trader? The global economy is interconnected. Problems in Europe lead to problems in China and problems in the USA lead to problems virtually anywhere in the world. The coming year could be one of extreme volatility of foreign currency rates. The general consensus is that the Euro will fall due to a recession in Europe or a recession avoided by printing money. The seemingly impervious Chinese Yuan could fall as well, or at least level off due to decreased exports. It could get worse if the scenario of a Chinese real estate crash turns out to be the case. Then there is the issue of social and political unrest. The Arab world is not the only place where people have grown tired of heavy handed autocracies. People often put up with bad government when they can put food on the table and rise up when the economy turns bad.

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New headlines about a government collapse indicate that a Greek debt default is very possible despite herculean efforts by the European Community at large to prevent this very scenario. This story goes back a couple of years to the 2008 stock market crash and onset of the worst recession in three quarters of a century. Nations throughout the world borrowed heavily, or simply printed money, to avoid a banking collapse and a much dreaded freeze in credit worldwide. This strategy has been criticized by some as likely bankrupt many nations and lauded by some as having avoided a second Great Depression. The result in a number of nations in the European Union is that banks stayed open and governments engaged in various economic stimulus plans in efforts to jump start their economies. However, the end result for several nations was that they simply ran out of money and credit. The looming Greek debt is not the only sovereign debt issue plaguing Europe. Five nations have been in the spotlight for the last years. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain have become known as the PIIGS group in financial circles. As things worsen Forex risk aversion has driven the Euro down.

News reports tell us that austerity measures demanded by lenders in return for writing of large portions of Greek national debt and securing the rest have evoked street demonstrations and riots in Greece. The Prime Minister recently called for a popular referendum on the painfully cobbled together debt deal offer to Greece. The reaction of many lawmakers is that they will call for a no confidence vote. If this vote passes there will have to be new elections in Greece and all of nearly two years of work putting together a rescue package may indeed go down the drain. A possible result of a Greek debt default would be Greece leaving the European Union and more pressure on other members of the PIIGS group, starting with Italy. The Yen and Swiss franc will likely be under pressure rise farther and the dollar as a safe haven currency will likely go up as well.

What effect will a Greek debt default have on the Euro? What effect will a Greek debt default have on the situation in Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain? How about stock markets throughout the world and other currencies? Many fear a domino effect of debt defaults if the Greek situation is not contained. Certainly markets throughout the world are concerned as every time there is bad news about European debt, stocks go down. Experts are especially concerned that Italy will be next if Greece defaults, with other PIIGS nations to follow. The Euro will likely fall in this case and traders buying puts in Forex trading the Euro will likely prosper. Many choose to buy options in such a situation and avoid trading currencies directly. By doing so the trader limits his risk to the cost of the options contract and enjoys the leverage of trading options as well. Using a strategy known as a long straddle a trader buys calls and puts on the same currency with the same expiration date. He will profit if the currency rises or falls and if the currency rate does not change he will lose only the prices of the options contracts whether there is a Greek debt default or not.

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The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the Forex market in a number of ways. The Federal Reserve and the central banks of many nations routinely intervene in the Forex market in order to maintain the strength of a given currency or in order to hold its price down. The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the US dollar or affect any currency the Fed chooses to buy with dollars. The Fed will, for example, choose to intervene in the currency markets in order to reduce the relative value of the dollar compared to the currencies of its trading partners. By selling dollars and buying gold or Yen, Euros, Swiss francs, or any other currency the value of the dollar tends to be reduced across the board. By buying Yen the price of Yen tends to go up in relation to the dollar. The same is true with Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, British Pounds, and the rest. How to trade Forex successfully will include having an understanding of how the Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the currency pair that one is trading.

The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect US exports, imports, and the US balance of payments. That is, in fact, why the Fed will choose to intervene in the Forex markets. The value of the US dollar in relation to other currencies is only important so far as it affects issues such as how effectively US companies can export their products and compete with foreign imports. The Asian exporters, Japan, Taiwan, and China, especially, have acted for years to raise the value of the US dollar and keep their currency values low in comparison. This has made their products cheaper, and thus more attractive to US buyers. It has given them a competitive advantage and contributed greatly to their success as exporters. The problem for the USA and the value of the dollar lies in the economic success of the USA and the relative stability of its currency, economy, politics, and national borders. The US dollar is a safe haven currency. In times of world wide turmoil and instability people buy dollars. This is a tribute to the high standing of the dollar and tends to keep the dollar artificially high. For the trader, as an example, how to invest in Euro is to buy the day before the US Fed decides to buy a few billion Euros with dollars.

The Federal Reserve buying gold and foreign currency can affect the artificial elevation of the value of the US dollar. When a big player, like the Fed or a large central bank, dumps a large amount of its currency in the Forex market there are immediately more sellers than buyers of the currency and will be until the price of the currency comes down to where every last offered dollar is purchased. The affect is to reduce the value of the dollar and raise the value of each and every currency which the Fed buys. The same applies to gold. Gold goes up when the US replenishes its gold reserves. How to trade Forex in these situations is to keep up with the Forex news and any announcements by the Fed. It is to anticipate when the Fed is likely to intervene. Then the trader needs to be able to anticipate just how well the sale of dollars will work in reducing the value of the dollar and just how soon it will rebound and trade accordingly.

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Forex is the worldwide currency exchange market, also known as the foreign exchange market, “fx” for short. This is an over-the-counter electronic trading market for the major worldwide currencies. It offers easy entry to the average public trader and fairly low margin requirements.

However, this low margin and high leverage is also the #1 risk and cause of loss among novice Forex traders. Misuse of leverage is the Forex cardinal sin. In the article below I’m going to explain the new leverage rules, and show you exactly how to take advantage of it! To give you even more I put together this Free Forex Toolkit with an entire video section dedicated to using the new leverage rules to consistently profit…GET IT HERE.

What do we mean by low margin and what is leverage? Well basically this means that you can control a huge amount of a currency in the Forex market with a very small cash outlay. The normal stock and index options that we trade at BigTrends.com represent 100 shares of stock — you pay a premium to control/own this option. For example, in the stock option market you may be able to control the right to buy 100 shares of IBM for $500 — this is an example of leverage. However, the leverage in Forex is much greater than this in most cases … but so is the risk.

We only have to look at the recent housing market crash to see an example of where leverage and low margin caused massive losses among individual investors. People across the world were buying houses and properties beyond their means and with very little cash down. Many of these were speculative, greedy bets on a continued sharp rise in housing prices — which knowledgeable, experienced traders such as ourselves knew wouldn’t continue forever. They weren’t bad homeowners; they simply misused leverage.

The huge amount of potential leverage and low margin requirements in fx trading is similar to this. The latest rules allow Forex leverage for 50:1 on major currencies and 20:1 on minor currencies. Some brokers may still be able to offer 100:1 leverage. What this means is that a trader can often control millions of dollars of a currency proposition with a very small cash outlay. When novice traders allow emotions such as greed and fear to rule their trading, they often end up on the losing end of large leveraged bets.

Thanks for reading, and I’ve got a lot more where that came from! While I write my next article get my Free Forex Toolkit that will put your Forex trading on the right track!

Article compliments of Scott Downing, Director of Research at BigTrends.com

Do you know what foreign exchange trading is? The foreign exchange market is a place where currencies are traded against other currencies.

The largest, most liquid market in the world is the forex market which has trades of over $2 trillion US dollars taking place on a daily basis most of the week. This market is constantly on the move any time of day or night throughout the year. Trades are being placed at any given time of the day. The market is full of all kinds of players such as corporations and financial institutions to your individual investor.

The main thing to keep in mind about the Forex is that it deals with the currency used by all countries around the world. Therefore, foreign exchange markets are moved by supply and demand, which is in constant flux and needs to be continually monitored to optimize trading.

Everyday, there are large volumes of currency conversions carried out by government, commercial and individual traders. That large and small investors can trade in this marketplace is what makes foreign exchange trading so attractive and popular.

The liquidity of the forex market and the 24 hour trading environment due to overlapping world markets are advantages that allow traders to chop and change their trading strategies quickly depending on the world’s geopolitical, economical and environmental conditions. Of course, foreign exchange trading is not without a considerable amount of risk along with the chance to realize awesome profits.

You had better understand though of the ever present danger of having your entire capital investment as well as any profits wiped out from movements of the market against you. Doing your homework in regards to any market tricks or tips is of paramount importance ahead of placing any decent amounts of money in a trade. Don’t ever make a trade if you have any negative gut-feelings.

There are endless numbers of websites and courses on foreign exchange investments which you can utilize on the internet. In Forex trades are generally ended at a spot rate, being settled within a couple of business days.

On the other hand, rollovers are when positions stay open and roll-over to the following day, which means the positions will be settled at the new rate. The asking and offer prices are the quotes for the 2 currencies involved. With the asking price being on the right and the offer price being on the left.

Forex risk comes in two parts. Forex trading requires a set of skills that one needs to attain in order to compete. There is Forex risk in Forex trading without the necessary skills, strategy, and maturity. In addition there is Forex risk in Forex trading in a world of increasing demand coupled with increasing scarcity. Both types of Forex risk can be dealt with successfully by learning the necessary skills for Forex trading, developing a Forex strategy, and staying current with the factors that influence the relative values of the currency pair or pairs that you routinely trade.

Forex trading always comes with a disclaimer. It goes something like this: Trading on margin carries a substantial risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before you decide to engage in Forex trading it is best to carefully consider your experience, objectives, and willingness to risk your capital. It is possible to loose all of your capital in Forex Trading so do not invest money in Forex that you absolutely cannot afford to lose.

This type of disclaimer should be considered sober advice and not a scare tactic. It is entirely possible to engage in successful and highly profitable Forex trading using a well thought out and practiced Forex strategy. Forex risks are manageable and decrease as you progress along a learning curve.

The Forex skill set is something that you will develop over time. The point is to manage your risk while you are learning. Forex trading is not a movie where they actor puts all of his chips on 25 red and wins at roulette. Using the game analogy, trading Forex is more like a poker game that goes on for years. You opponent will never run out of money but you could. The point is to win more than you lose and to walk away with a pot of money. The point is to “play” like a professional gambler where poker is not a game but a business!

To develop your skill set, get to know your trading station with lots and lots of simulation trading. Get to know the technical terms of trading until they are part of you. When you start out, “for real,” don’t risk any more than a percent of your money and never leverage your account or deal on credit. And review your trades, critique yourself, make notes and read your notes. Develop a Forex strategy and get organized from the start of your trading.

You will need to know how to read charts even if you consider yourself a fundamental trader. There is never too much knowledge or skill involved in successful Forex trading. With each new piece of knowledge you learn about charts you need to go back to simulated trading to practice. You will learn lots about technical analysis which will help in minute to minute Forex trading.

You will develop the ability to forecast future market moves, pivot points, by doing your homework. This has to do with knowing the macroeconomics, politics, and trade relationships of the countries whose currencies you trade.

Successful Forex trading requires a developed skill set and the discipline to use it. Sometimes a successful Forex strategy is to sit out a day or two when you do not understand the market. Sometimes it means spending the day reading about events in Tokyo or London instead of following the market on your trading station.