The Forex Nitty Gritty

Although companies doing business internationally prefer stable currencies, speculators commonly look for profits in currency rate instability. The situation in the European Community is a case in point. A collection of European nations are to varying degrees in danger of defaulting on their national debts. The worst of the lot is Greece. There has been speculation in the press that the nation might be forced to withdraw from the European Union and quit using the Euro as its currency. For the last two years EU officials, the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and a succession of Greek officials have been dealing with the crisis. The end result is still uncertain. The continuing result of this uncertainty is currency rate instability. It starts with the Euro. However, the collective EU economy is on par with that of the USA as the first or second largest in the world. A financial crisis, renewed recession, and/or political breakup in Europe will affect markets and currencies throughout the world. Efforts to avoid financial disaster such as the French austerity plan threaten the economic growth needed to pay back the accumulated European debt load.

The most recent news about Greek debt negotiations is that European finance ministers are demanding that private investors take a fifty percent write off on the value of their investments and that they extend their loans out to two or three decades. In return the EU solvent members of the EU will provide the funds to rescue the Greeks from their financial mess. The precise interest rates involved in a new set of loans is a bone of contention as higher rates would require more money than the EU at large is willing to offer up to fix this mess. The Euro has fluctuated up and down in response to these ongoing negotiations, ministerial pronouncements, and press reports. Those who have been able to accurately read the various pronouncements have been able to profit from the resulting currency rate instability. It is not just about how to short the Euro but how to anticipate a likely recovery when the EU gets its economic house in order.

What happens if there is a Greece debt default? The concern is that many European banks as well as other investors have purchased Euro denominated bonds from Greece. If the nation defaults on its debts the resulting losses could cause banks not to loan and large investors to hold on to their money. If this happens in Europe, Spain, Italy, and even France could have problems selling their bonds at auction at reasonable rates. The doomsday scenario in this case is that government default on loans rolls across the bottom of Europe ending up in France, the continent’s second largest economy. The European Union breaks up with only the northern members remaining. The resulting currency rate instability drives the Euro down. The resulting recession in Europe hurts Asian exporters affects the Yen, Australian dollar, Yuan, and Rupee. Currency traders who do not see the whole picture sustain large losses. Those who anticipate the fallout from a poorly handled Greek debt crisis profit from the resulting widespread currency rate instability.

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Will 1% loans from the European Central Bank to struggling European banks result in stabilization of the European banking system or a Euro carry trade? The European Union has been in a sovereign debt dilemma for a couple of years. The Southern tier of EU nations, plus Ireland, has become the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) group. These nations, most notably Greece, would have been unable to finance their national debts without aid from lenders, the IMF, the European Central Bank and other EU nations in particular. The possibility of a breakup of the European Union or at least the departure of Greece and a couple of other nations loomed over the continent for the last few months. Just recently EU leaders met in Paris and agreed to amend the EU treaty to allow closer financial integration. (Read this as putting a cap on politically motivated pork barrel spending to buy local votes.) In addition EU members gave the European Central Bank greater authority and autonomy in dealing with the overall debt situation as many banks were weak and many considered a run on French banks a distinct possibility as many had invested heavily in bonds from Greece, Italy, and the others. But, just what does this have to do with a Euro carry trade?

The expression, carry trade, is usually associated with the Yen and not the Euro. Japan has had extremely low interest rates for two decades. Investors holding Yen can engage in foreign exchange trading and obtain US dollars or other international currencies in search of better returns on investment. Then the investor buys US Treasuries if he now has dollars or, perhaps, Italian or Greek national debt bonds if he has turned in Yen into Euros. Anyone who bought dollars before the rally last fall and then purchased treasury bills before rates fell did doubly well.

On the other hand many Japanese repatriated offshore assets to pay for the destruction of the worst earthquake and tsunami in their history. This Yen repatriation sent the currency up dangerously fast. The rise in the Yen was only halted by threats of the G7 ministers to intervene in strength. Anyone who held offshore assets in a Yen carry trade did poorly at that point. The point of the Yen carry trade is to have or borrow assets in a nation where interest rates are low, convert to another currency, and invest where interest rates are high. The point is also that a change in currency rates does not erase all profits. This is the connection to a so called Euro carry trade.

A concern of some is that struggling European banks that have received 1% interest loans may be tempted to invest in high risk, potentially high return, debt. Whether this would be European debt or to use foreign currency trading in order to practice a Euro carry trade debt elsewhere in the world the potential for profits could be great, providing that the global economic picture brightens. On the other hand the loans could amount to throwing good money after bad if anyone tries such an aggressive and risky strategy. The good news for those fearful of such a scenario is that overnight deposits at the European Central Bank are at an all-time high. Apparently many of the European banks that needed bailouts have learned their lesson. They are avoiding any semblance of a Euro carry trade and putting their short term money in the most secure location available, even at low overnight interest rates.

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If a beginning trader wishes to profit from fluctuations in the US Dollar, Swiss franc or Euro versus other currencies he will need to develop a Forex trading system. Although it is possible to let a team of traders and programmers develop a Forex trading system for you it is important that any foreign currency trader understands the ins and outs of the system. Even if you plan to purchase a trading system it is an excellent exercise to think through the various aspects of foreign currency trading in order to put things in perspective. So, if you are going to develop a Forex trading system or purchase one “off the shelf” what are the important parts?

Which Currency Pair and When

People trade foreign currencies for two basic reasons. Companies doing business internationally need to exchange currencies in order to make and receive payment for goods and services. These folks follow fundamentals and use Forex technical strategies in order to hedge the risk of currency fluctuation between the signing of a contract and final payment. Currency speculators simply seek to profit from price changes between any given pair of currencies. To a degree it is easier to develop a Forex trading system for hedging currency risk because the trader is only interested in one pair of currencies and one specific time frame. On the other hand a currency speculator will commonly keep his eye on a number of currency pairs in order to trade the most profitable pair at the most profitable time. Thus a speculator will need to allot time to seeking the most profitable pairs to trade and may subscribe to an alert service in order to trade when price action is potentially most profitable.

Which Market to Trade and What Time of Day

The major Forex exchanges are London, New York, and Tokyo. The sum total of their business hours allows a trader, in theory, to trade around the clock. However, humans need sleep. Traders also need prep time to scout out trading opportunities, learn more about trading strategies, review results, and modify their trading system. In order to develop a Forex trading system that works for people, time of day, available hours and organization of work flow are crucial. Folks wishing to trade the post tsunami Yen versus other currencies may wish to work during Tokyo business hours while those trading the British Pound may wish to work London business hours. For a trader living in Miami, Chicago, Denver, or San Francisco this will require other arrangements in order for the trader to have a personal, social, or family life.

How Much Do You Want To Risk and How Do You Protect Your Money?

Success is never guaranteed in Forex trading. Traders typically trade using a margin account. Then they leverage their trades which can greatly magnify profits but can also magnify losses. Smart traders also use trailing stops in order to lock in gains and avoid disastrous losses. Smart day traders get out of all of their trades at the end of the trading session to avoid getting caught in a big gap when the market opens the next day. Smart traders never put all of their money into one trade and smart traders never look upon what they are doing as gambling. And good traders review their results whether they are trading the Euro and the Greek debt crisis or are knowledgeable about commodities and trading the AUD, and if their system does not work they develop a Forex trading system that does.

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The recently announced French austerity plan reminds us that it is not only the so called PIIGS nations in the European Union that need to cut expenses. In announcing the French austerity plan Prime Minister Francois Fillon forecasted that the French austerity plan needs to save 100 billion euros. President Nicolas Sarkozy and his government would like to avoid a downgrade of their credit rating (as seen in the USA) and is thus cutting budgets and looking to raise taxes. With the Greek debt crisis ever so painfully in the news Italy is seen as the next, and worse, problem confronting the EU. The news the other day carried a telling item. The very Catholic nation of Ireland will no longer have an ambassador to the Vatican. It appears that everyone is cutting something in their budget.

French growth forecasts have been cut in half. Analysts say the French austerity plan will certainly reduce debts but may not be sufficient to avoid a cut in the nation’s credit rating. This issue is a little like looking at Illinois or California within the USA. It has to do with a member of the EU and not the EU itself. But, maybe not. In order for the bailout plans of the various nations in the EU to work the two largest economies must grow. Italy, the third largest EU economy is in trouble. France is looking to reduce debt which will likely reduce economic growth. That leaves Germany whose economy is recovering from the recession more slowly than desired. How does all of this affect the seemingly continuous downward direction of the Euro? Europe, for all of its current problems, is either the first or second largest economy in the world, depending upon whether they or the USA are in the lead for the year. However, the value of the Euro versus other currencies will adjust based upon the economic strength of the EU in relation to other economies.

French officials are cautioning the nation that sacrifices may be required as the idea of a European nation going bankrupt is no longer an abstraction. With Greece, Spain, and now Italy in danger of debt default it is altogether possible that one or more nations might leave the EU. How this new reality will affect the Euro versus the dollar is uncertain. A national bankruptcy could cause a cascade of defaults in weaker European economies. This could lead to nations leaving the EU. On the other hand it could end up with a stronger and more economically viable union. As with all Forex trading the issue of the French austerity plan requires continual fundamental and technical analysis of the currency involved, the Euro. Obviously a true global economic recovery would speed the recovery of the major nations of Europe and help stave off the wave of defaults that trouble world markets. As always traders need to watch two economies and two sets of data at once in Forex trading as traders trade one currency against the other.

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New headlines about a government collapse indicate that a Greek debt default is very possible despite herculean efforts by the European Community at large to prevent this very scenario. This story goes back a couple of years to the 2008 stock market crash and onset of the worst recession in three quarters of a century. Nations throughout the world borrowed heavily, or simply printed money, to avoid a banking collapse and a much dreaded freeze in credit worldwide. This strategy has been criticized by some as likely bankrupt many nations and lauded by some as having avoided a second Great Depression. The result in a number of nations in the European Union is that banks stayed open and governments engaged in various economic stimulus plans in efforts to jump start their economies. However, the end result for several nations was that they simply ran out of money and credit. The looming Greek debt is not the only sovereign debt issue plaguing Europe. Five nations have been in the spotlight for the last years. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain have become known as the PIIGS group in financial circles. As things worsen Forex risk aversion has driven the Euro down.

News reports tell us that austerity measures demanded by lenders in return for writing of large portions of Greek national debt and securing the rest have evoked street demonstrations and riots in Greece. The Prime Minister recently called for a popular referendum on the painfully cobbled together debt deal offer to Greece. The reaction of many lawmakers is that they will call for a no confidence vote. If this vote passes there will have to be new elections in Greece and all of nearly two years of work putting together a rescue package may indeed go down the drain. A possible result of a Greek debt default would be Greece leaving the European Union and more pressure on other members of the PIIGS group, starting with Italy. The Yen and Swiss franc will likely be under pressure rise farther and the dollar as a safe haven currency will likely go up as well.

What effect will a Greek debt default have on the Euro? What effect will a Greek debt default have on the situation in Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain? How about stock markets throughout the world and other currencies? Many fear a domino effect of debt defaults if the Greek situation is not contained. Certainly markets throughout the world are concerned as every time there is bad news about European debt, stocks go down. Experts are especially concerned that Italy will be next if Greece defaults, with other PIIGS nations to follow. The Euro will likely fall in this case and traders buying puts in Forex trading the Euro will likely prosper. Many choose to buy options in such a situation and avoid trading currencies directly. By doing so the trader limits his risk to the cost of the options contract and enjoys the leverage of trading options as well. Using a strategy known as a long straddle a trader buys calls and puts on the same currency with the same expiration date. He will profit if the currency rises or falls and if the currency rate does not change he will lose only the prices of the options contracts whether there is a Greek debt default or not.

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It appears as though the best deal last month was investing in the US dollar. Stocks went down, gold plummeted, and interest rates on US Treasuries fell. Meanwhile the US dollar rose in Forex trading in the EUR/USD, USD/YEN, and USD/CHF currencies pairs as well as most others. Investing in the US dollar and US treasuries was an even better deal as progressively lower rates at weekly auctions has raised the value of treasuries in hand. Confidence in the us dollar has risen as confidence in other currencies has fallen. The dollar has traditionally been the safe haven currency of choice although that fact has been called into question in recent years due to the mounting US debt. As the US withdraws from foreign conflicts and uses its military assets more judiciously Europe continues to deal with the debts of its Southern Tier. Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are all dealing with potential debt default as their treasury notes mature. Greece is the constant subject of discussion as severe austerity measures do not appear to be sufficient to meet the requirement of lenders to forgive debt and pay notes coming due.

With the prospect of a second dip to the recession purchases of and futures in industrial raw materials has fallen off roughly ten percent while stocks across the world nearly as badly. The US dollar rose against all major currencies in the last month and several previously stronger minor currencies. That happened for the first time in a number of years. For the quarter the only investment better than investing in the US dollar were US treasuries by 6.4 percent versus 5.7 percent. Part of the rise of the dollar comes from investors seeking the dollar as a safe haven currency. Part is because both Japan and Switzerland have been purchasing other currencies in order to keep the franc and Yen from rising too fast. Forex traders are purchasing dollars because of liquidity as well as the prospect of the currency rising. The Yen and Swiss franc would also be good choices if it were not for the fact that each nation is actively its currency to drive its value down.

Until Europe finds an effective means of dealing with the debt crisis investors and currency traders are going to stay spooked. The flight to quality by investing in the US dollar may be more a flight to liquidity in the face of the Japan and Switzerland driving their currencies down. However, for the time being the dollar is the currency of choice. Fundamentals underlying the dollar include increases in construction and industrial production in the last quarter. The US is not especially dependent upon selling things to Europe – about two percent of exports behind Canada 19 percent Mexico 13 percent, China 7 percent, and Japan 4.7 percent. Also US banks do not have a high degree of exposure to the EU debt crisis. This leaves the USA in a stronger position than others as regards the debt crisis across the Atlantic and Forex risk aversion is driving traders to investing in the US dollar.

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Volatile foreign currency rates are driving Forex traders to the US Dollar – USD. The US congress is back to having problems deciding if it will extend the debt ceiling and Europe is still dallying over a bailout of its struggling members’ debts. Worrying about another dip to the recession the currencies of Asia’s export driven economies are falling among generally volatile foreign currency rates. Versus the US Dollar the British Pound – USD GBP, went down last week as did South Korea’s Won – USD KRW, the India Rupee – USD INR, and the Chinese Yuan – USD CNY. Currency speculators are betting on a continued rise of the US Dollar and the fall of most other currencies. Traders are consulting both fundamentals and Forex technical strategies in order to profit in today’s volatile markets.

There are two roots to this dilemma. One is the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the other is the continually mounting US debt. Both situations have traders concerned. Traders for companies doing business internationally are especially concerned as currency risk is a major concern during times of volatile foreign currency rates. International businesses will typically buy currency options in order to hedge currency risk. Trading options on the falling Euro has been profitable for those who purchased puts on the Euro in the EUR USD currency pair. Shorting the Euro also worked but entailed a potentially higher risk. The reason is that in options trading the trader’s risk is limited to the price of the options contract. If currency rates move contrary to expectation the trader can exit the contract at a loss or simply let the contract expire at a loss but that is the limit of his losses. A trader who shorts the Euro, for example, could be hurt if the Euro rebounds after a successful resolution of the EU sovereign debt dilemma. The other advantage of options trading is the leverage it offers traders. A trader need never own either currency. He only needs to buy an options contract and then execute the opposite trade in order to gain his profits when dealing with volatile foreign currency rates.

Volatile foreign currency rates, upward for the dollar, make US assets more valuable. It also makes US products more expensive overseas. In general Asian exporters are interested in a strong dollar but speculators don’t want to get caught in a market of volatile currency rates and falling Asian currencies. In the last week of so several currencies fell versus the dollar. The concern is that a renewed recession in Europe and possibly the USA will dry up the export market for these nations and directly affect their economies. As this situation demonstrates confidence in the dollar is a relative thing. The dollar has generally fallen against many currencies for years. This has led to more successful economies in these export-driven nations. It has also resulted in these nations holding a large amount of US debt. As interest rates fall with successively lower interest rates at Treasury note auctions anyone holding Treasuries has seen an appreciation of about 25% in their investment, a good reason to consider the dollar as a safe haven currency.

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A pertinent question among Forex traders today is, “Why is the dollar climbing?” There have been a number of reasons why the dollar has fallen of late. The US Federal Reserve has been following a policy intended to promote investment and create jobs. As such interest rates have been kept low. When asked about this, the Fed as responded that it is less concerned about inflation than with stifling the economic recovery. Why has the dollar faltered in relation to the Euro? Forex investors have looked outside of the US with its low interest rates for profits to places such as the European Union and the Euro for higher interest rates. As the Euro has faltered due to the persistent Greek debt crisis this strategy has backfired on many Forex traders. So, why is the dollar climbing? Is it just because the Euro is having problems?

An interesting event may well be the fact that US multinationals are said to be bringing profits home to the USA. This could be related to their collective belief that the dollar will soon rally. Whatever the reason the effect on the dollar could well be similar to what happen with Yen repatriation when Japanese companies brought home Yen to deal with the after effects of the earthquake and tsunami. If, in fact, US multinationals bring profits home to the USA the purchase of dollar with the various currencies of the world will drive up the price of the dollar. Traders can successfully anticipate this situation in two ways. By engaging to continual analysis of the dollar traders will stay current on US monetary policy. They will be aware of companies beginning to purchase dollars. By following technical pricing patterns traders will not need to ask, why is the dollar climbing? They will simply trade according to market patterns and pocket their profits.

We may ask why is the dollar climbing when we hear of huge debt problems in the US as well as solid growth in other economies over the last couple of years. One of the issues of the years has been the lack of transparency in many economies. An example is the strength of the Japanese economy and the Yen during the 1980’s. The Yen was strong and the Japanese industrial machine, seemingly, could do no wrong. Japanese investors were buying US assets from Colombia pictures on the West Coast to Rockefeller Center in New York City. Shortly after these well published purchases it became apparent that there were problems in Japan. Much high level lending in Japan took place based upon handshakes and old school relationships. Encouraged by the government loans were made to support new industry and business even when these were not especially profitable. When this became known the proverbial house of cards came tumbling down. Japan has languished with near zero percent interest rates for twenty years as a result. The country has remained prosperous but the myth of invincibility was busted and the Yen did not go on to become the world’s dominant currency. During this time many have continued to view the dollar as a safe haven currency. So, why is the dollar climbing? As always it has to do with a variety of factors but in the end it means that folks want to buy dollars and will pay a higher price.

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A currency ETF or Exchange Traded Fund is a fund that deals in one national currency. A currency ETF can hold assets in any of the world’s currencies. Such funds offer investors and traders a focus on an individual nation and economy. A currency ETF offers benefits similar to single country stock funds. Currency traders following the Greek debt crisis and the travails of the Euro might be interested in a currency ETF that holds only Euros. A plausible strategy might be that when the Greek debt crisis, specifically, and, in general, the PIIGS debt crisis including Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain is resolved the Euro might rebound sharply. An alternative could be a currency ETF dealing in Yen. The same sort of strategy would prevail in that the trader would believe that the Yen will go up substantially when the short and midterm effects of the earthquake and tsunami are dealt with.

Currency ETFs are a current hot item. It remains to be seen if a currency ETF is a better investment than simply trading the country’s currency by oneself. Many believe that an ETF focused on equities in a country is a better tool with which to profit from economic events. An ETF can simply hold a currency or it can trade the currency, typically versus the US dollar. A currency ETF that trades in any of the major currencies can trade against any of the other major currencies. However, many minor currencies only trade versus the US dollar. As such one might think of a currency ETF for a minor currency as also being a currency ETF for the US dollar or perhaps its reciprocal. Whether traders in an ETF are dealing in the post tsunami Yen or any other currency the skill of the traders will likely be more important than the particular currency which they are trading. If the ETF is of the “buy and hold” variety the choice of currency will be more important than choice of trader. However, the investor will be foregoing the profits available in Forex trading that come from the daily fluctuations in currency rates while waiting for an eventual big market move.

Investing in a currency ETF or an ETF that invests solely in one nation’s stocks has both an averaging effect and an exclusion effect and both can be detrimental to the investor. If one chooses to follow the fortunes of a single currency one may well have tied up all of one’s investment capital just when there is a big and promising market move in another currency pair. For a stock fund in one country one must remember that not all stocks perform equally, just like not all currency pairs perform equally. Picking the right stock can be more important than picking the right country. Picking when to trade the Euro, Yen, Rupee, Ruble, Real, and others can be more profitable than solely focusing on one currency to the exclusion of all others. A currency ETF can be like long term, buy and hold, investing. It can gain profits, or losses, and it can tie up investor capital to the exclusion of other opportunities.

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Mexican currency exchange rates are no longer just a concern for tourists. Mexican currency exchange rates have become an issue for currency traders as the world of emerging market currencies collides with high tech trading. The Mexican peso is actively traded in the world of emerging market currencies. How to trade Forex today with the Peso, for some, is by arbitrage between the CME and the Mexican exchange MexDer. The Mexican exchange is increasing its bandwidth and level of connection with the CME in order to allow for this degree of trading in thousandths of a second. What attracts traders to Mexican currency exchange rates or those of the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, or Singapore dollar is their relative volatility. This volatility in emerging market currencies is that promises large profits. Trades need to remember that large volatility can also lead to large losses.

In trading Mexican currency exchange rates the trader will follow the same sort of economic news, monetary policy, interest rates, and political factors that traders follow when trading all currency pairs. The North American Free Trade Agreement has slowly but surely increased prosperity and growth of the middle class in Northern Mexico and throughout the country. As prosperity goes in Mexico so will, likely, the health of the Peso. It has always been possible to trade the Peso versus the Dollar. However, the addition of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso to the list of possible currencies to trade with high tech tools could be profitable for both institutional and independent traders. As trading volume of the Peso increases so will the accuracy of Forex technical strategies in trading Mexican currency exchange rates.

Forex trading and the economic news is as important a relationship when trading Mexican currency rates as it is for trading the dollar. The Mexican central bank recently kept its key interest rate at 4.5% for the 22nd consecutive month which helped the Peso rise slightly against the dollar. Although the direction of the Peso may well be upwards over time as the Mexican economy strengthens it is not so much the long term view of the Peso that interests traders as the day by day fluctuations in the currency. With the advent of high tech trading of emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso there will be more profits to be made and more risk of loss for the trader. For the international business interested in trading across borders the ability to trade directly in emerging market currencies will be helpful. Currently many emerging market currencies only trade with the US dollar. Thus to convert a currency such as the Mexican Peso with the Thai baht is has historically only be possible by trading one with the dollar and then the dollar with the other. It is possible that with higher volume currency trading in emerging market currencies that it will be possible to trade one directly with another, which might serve to foster increased trade and prosperity as well as foster more interest in Mexican currency exchange rates.

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