Commentators are saying that the Forex markets are trading sideways these days. That is to say there are no big up or down moves in any major currency pairs. It would seem that everyone is thinking Forex strategy and Forex news, waiting for markets to break. Part of this is the uncertainty brought on by the slowly resolving recession and not knowing who will really break out and how soon and how fast. It also has to do with the issue of managing the huge amounts of debt that governments have taken on to stimulate their economies while simultaneously worrying about political problems brought on by high unemployment. Forex and sovereign debt are still closely linked. As markets are still trading sideways good Forex advice would seem to be to follow the herd and not commit excessive capital until market direction becomes clearer.
As markets continue trading sideways China continues orchestrating Yuan revaluation. In prepared statements the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in China said it adopts “a go with the flow” attitude in the management of its Forex reserves. The statements continues to say that any buying and selling of US debt is and will be based upon taking advantage of market conditions and not based upon political messages. The agency states that US debt provides good security and low transaction costs and that it is the largest single debt market on the planet. None of this really tells the currency trader anything but is politically reassuring. Based upon the statement we can expect to see things trading sideways. Any market movement will come with China’s buying and selling of dollars and its demonstration of a willingness to see the value of the Yuan float upward.
One issue that could affect the issue of the Forex market trading sideways is the fact that the US congress will soon pass new regulations governing the financial industry. To the extent that these regulations restrict Forex trading they will remove huge players from the Forex markets. Much of the speculation about this issue has to do with financial losses that the big banks in the USA could take. For the Forex trader the issue is if less trading volume will lead to less liquidity. A less liquid market could be a more volatile market and trading sideways could become a thing of the past. Understanding the Forex markets could change if there are fewer players or if other players enter the Forex markets to take up the slack. Nevertheless, trading Forex is still a mixture of anticipation and reaction. Currencies trade higher on good economic news and when the news hits the market traders react differently based upon their perception of the news and when they are able to execute their trades. Thus technical trading will still work for those well versed in pattern analysis and diligent in execution.
Factors influencing the EUR/USD pair are still important, as an example, as the market is trading sideways. When something substantial happens the markets will move. As always success in Forex means a plan and a method. A little research and practice trading while the market is trading sideways may be in line.
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